Thomas Massie's Chances of Defeating Trump and the Billionaires
The Kentucky primary pits Massie, one of the most conservative members of Congress, against Trump and many wealthy donors.
www.newsweek.comLatest reporting suggests Thomas Massie’s chances in Kentucky’s GOP primary have moved around quickly across prediction markets and polling—with a noticeable late shift against him heading into election day.
What the latest numbers say (prediction markets)
- Kalshi (April 26): Traders priced Massie’s primary-win probability at 72%, with Ed Gallrein at 29%.[1]
- Newsweek (May 18, “eve of election day”): Massie’s odds dropped to about 42% on Polymarket (and the piece also cites higher figures for Gallrein on both Kalshi/Polymarket).[2]
What’s driving the odds shift
- Newsweek links the late movement to recent allegations and broader volatility typical of high-spend, intraparty primaries (Massie denied the allegation mentioned).[2]
Need the exact odds for “election odds”?
If you tell me which race you mean, I can summarize the correct market(s):
- Kentucky’s 4th District GOP primary (Massie vs. Ed Gallrein), or
- a different election (e.g., general-election odds / Senate bid / etc.).
Which one are you asking about?