Here are the latest publicly reported outlooks on El Niño for 2026.
NOAA/CP C ENSO outlook: El Niño is likely to emerge between June and August 2026, with probabilities around 60–62% for continuation into late 2026, though intensity remains uncertain due to the spring predictability barrier. This aligns with multiple agencies forecasting a transition from La Niña to El Niño with increasing confidence through summer 2026. [NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion; News coverage citing CPC outlook]
WMO monthly climate update: The World Meteorological Organization notes growing confidence in the onset of El Niño in 2026, potentially strengthening later in the year, while cautioning that forecast confidence improves after April due to model uncertainties. Some forecasts indicate a possibility of a strong El Niño, though exact strength remains uncertain. [WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update; related press coverage]
Independent analyses and press coverage: Several outlets project a return of El Niño in mid-2026 with implications for global weather patterns, including warmer global temperatures and altered precipitation./ Some forecast updates point to a potential “strong” El Niño later in 2026, but emphasize uncertainties from the spring predictability barrier. [News coverage from March–April 2026; science briefings]
What this could mean regionally (high-level)
Illustrative example
Would you like a concise country-by-country or region-by-region briefing for North America, Europe, or Asia, with expected impacts on agriculture, energy, and weather planning for 2026/2027? I can pull in the latest precise forecasts and provide actionable considerations. [NOAA/WMO context]
WMO Report: El Nino Likely To Return As Early As May-July 2026. The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with rapidly rising sea-surface tempe
menafn.comA team of researchers shows that a rare and extreme annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific, combined with the accumulation of warm water in the upper western Pacific in spring 2026, will collectively drive a super El Niño event toward the end of this year.
www.eurekalert.orgExperts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.comThe El Niño weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to return in mid-2026, the UN said Friday.
phys.orgThe warming El Niño weather phenomenon could return later this year as its cooling opposite La Niña fades away, the United Nations said Tuesday.
phys.orgForecasts show an El Niño developing in 2026, with seasonal weather impacts over the United States, Canada, and Europe expected in 2026/2027
www.severe-weather.euMeteorologists predict a quick La Niña exit, with a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral by Jan-March. Expect neutral conditions to persist through at least late spring with a growing chance of El Niño in 2026.
www.agweb.comThe global weather system may be entering a major new phase as the tropical Pacific begins shifting away from La Niña and toward El Niño conditions in 2026. According to the latest official ENSO Di…
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