Australian housing shortage pushes house prices higher in 2026
New forecasts tip house prices will rise 7.7 per cent in 2026, as a demand surge at the affordable end collides with Australia's ongoing housing shortage.
www.realestate.com.auHere are the latest snapshots of Australian house price forecasts from reputable outlets and research firms.
Key takeaways
- Market momentum remains positive in many regions due to supply constraints and supportive demand, though growth rates vary by city and by forecast horizon.
- National forecasts commonly point to continued price gains into 2026, with some downside risk if rates stay higher or supply improves.
Recent forecasts and highlights
- Reuters-consulted analysts in mid-2024 to mid-2025 anticipated national house prices rising around 4–6% in 2024 and continuing in 2025–2026, with city-level disparities (e.g., Sydney showing more modest or variable gains, Melbourne sometimes softer or mixed) .
- KPMG’s 2025–2026 outlooks generally project solid momentum, with national house-values expected to rise around the high single to high-teens percent for 2024–2026 periods in several client briefings, reflecting ongoing supply tightness despite elevated rates .
- Canstar and related analyses (based on major bank forecasts) have suggested substantial price lift potential in some capitals (notably Sydney and Perth), driven by rate cuts boosting borrowing capacity and ongoing supply constraints; several reports also flag that first-homebuyer uptake and strict land supply constraints will moderate but not reverse gains .
- Domain and CoreLogic-related updates through 2025–2026 consistently showed accelerated gains in multiple capitals, with forecasts often in the 5–10% range for the next 12 months in late-2025 to early-2026, influenced by rate expectations and policy incentives .
- Regional disparities persist: some cities and regions may outpace others due to local supply dynamics, price resilience, and migration patterns; reports frequently underscore affordability pressures at the lower end of the market as a continuing driver of demand .
What this means for you
- If you’re considering buying, expect continued price growth in key capitals over the next 12–24 months, but be aware that price trajectories can be uneven across cities and even neighborhoods.
- If you’re selling or refinancing, current forecasts support continued equity gains in many markets, though interest-rate expectations and macro conditions can influence buyers’ pace and borrowing capacity.
- For investment planning, focus on markets with tight supply, strong population growth, and affordable entry points relative to local wages, while keeping an eye on policy changes that affect mortgage rates and incentives.
Notes on sources
- Market outlooks from major advisory and research firms publish city-by-city forecasts and national averages; these projections are frequently updated as new data comes in and as central-bank policy signals shift .
- For the most current numbers, consider checking recent releases from Domain/CoreLogic, KPMG Australia, Canstar, and major Australian banks’ property forecasts.
Would you like a concise table comparing city-level forecasts (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide) from a specific period (e.g., next 12 months) with sources, or a quick chart summarizing national versus city forecasts? If you specify the date range and preferred cities, I can assemble a focused snapshot with citations.