Warming El Nino set to return in mid-2026: UN
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to return in mid-2026, the UN said Friday.
phys.orgHere’s a concise update on the 2026 El Niño intensity forecast based on recent public outlooks.
- Current status and near-term odds: Most forecasts since early 2026 point to a shift from neutral toward El Niño conditions, with increasing odds of El Niño development in the second half of 2026. Several major centers have indicated that El Niño likelihood grows as the year progresses, though there is still uncertainty in timing and peak strength.[1][5][8]
- Expected intensity: There is a broad range of projections, from moderate El Niño to the potential for a strong to very strong event later in 2026, with some models suggesting a “super El Niño” scenario is possible but not yet confirmed.[2][4][6][1]
- Climate impact context: If a stronger El Niño develops, regions across the globe could experience altered rainfall patterns, more intense heat waves, and shifts in monsoon dynamics, consistent with historical El Niño impacts but potentially amplified by background climate change.[3][6][8]
- Key uncertainties to watch: Model spread, the strength of subsurface heat content, timing of westerly wind bursts, and how ensemble forecasts converge in mid-to-late 2026 will determine the realized peak intensity.[1][2]
Illustrative point: forecasts emphasize a two-stage evolution—neutral or weakly El Niño early in 2026, followed by increasing El Niño probability and potential stronger intensity in the second half of the year, which would drive notable global weather responses.[5][1]
If you’d like, I can pull the latest official summaries from NOAA CPC, WMO, and ECMWF and summarize them in a short, citation-backed brief tailored to your region (London/Europe) and interests (drought risk, heat, and rainfall).